The Method of Risk Assessment for a Multi-Agent System of Real-Time Management of Research and Development Projects
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Abstract
There has been suggested a practical quantitative model and method of risk assessment of project for terms of works execution allowing interactive control of progress for research and development projects using a multiagent system project management in real time. Agents represent departments, projects, tasks and employees while tasks of every project are linked and assigned at
the common field of departmental resources. The model is based on a linear approximation of probabilistic distributions
and risks calculation for tasks linked by consequence relation. The method is an order of calculations allowing risk assessment and rescheduling chains of the linked tasks in real time when tasks assignment for every employee is constantly changing due to unforeseen events. The developed method is designed for risk reduction during planning of research and development projects
in aerospace applications.
